I knew it!

[miekec]

There's a reason for all of it. And Onne's found it:
Why You Are Always Unlucky With the Public Transport

Comments

[mistake-554.livejournal.com]

So what if the bus comes every hour? This math is hurting my head.

[fairdice.livejournal.com]

If the bus has a schedule, and comes every hour, then this doesn't apply at all.

It's all about what happens for a bus that comes every-so-often on average, but when you show up you have no idea how long ago the last one was, or how soon the next one should be there. In that case, you might think that your average wait time should be half the time between busses -- seems reasonable, if you don't think about it too hard.

But if the busses don't come like clockwork, you actually end up waiting longer than that. "Half the time between busses" would be the correct average wait, if you were equally likely to get on any bus. But you're not: if some busses arrive close together and some farther apart, you're much more likely to get on a bus after a longer-than-average wait.

If you take this to the extreme, it all becomes clear. If the bus service advertises that they average of one bus every ten minutes, you'd expect to wait about 5 minutes. But if they send out busses 20 minutes apart, always sending out two at a time, then they are living up to their "one bus every 10 min on average" guarantee, but your average wait is just as bad as it would be if they only ran every 20 minutes.

[miekec]

But where does the math correct for you daily percentage of Karma? And good deeds, they must allow for a minute or two off the wait too!

I just hate waiting for the bus. Especially if one just doesn't show up, which frequently happens on my route. Then I end up waiting for 40 minutes. Hm.


sounds of brain working.....
....
(see next entry)